POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – By 2100, new research indicates that climate change could cause nearly three times more land to be affected by wildfires across Europe annually. The study projects a 192% increase in burned areas under a high-emissions scenario linked to approximately 3.6°C of global warming. This comes in the wake of major wildfires in 2026 that impacted regions of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The primary climate factors identified are persistent hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Published in Global Change Biology, the research utilized two fire models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Scientists examined a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The lower scenario corresponds to around 1.8°C of warming, while the higher reaches about 3.6°C. To isolate the impact of socioeconomic factors, the study conducted separate experiments where these variables were held constant.
In the low-emissions scenario, one model predicted a roughly 39% increase in the annual burned land area by the century’s end. Conversely, a second model suggested a potential decrease under lower warming due to its different interpretation of historical human influences. Under the high-emissions pathway, the models showed much more substantial growth, especially around the Mediterranean and large parts of Western and Central Europe—regions that have historically experienced relatively low fire activity.
Models Confirm Emissions as a Key Driver of Burned Area
The study highlights how fire weather conditions and firefighting capabilities significantly influence future wildfire trends across Europe. Factors such as population density, vegetation shifts, and land use also contribute, especially at regional scales. Maik Billing, the lead author working at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which spearheaded this research, explained that the analysis distinguishes climate-induced fire weather from human-related influences that can affect fire spread.
Enhancements in fire prevention, early detection, and firefighting efforts could reduce the extent of burned land by between 72% and 92% compared to scenarios without such improvements. The potential reduction is more pronounced in the lower-emissions scenario and less so under more severe warming conditions. Despite ongoing improvements in fire management, about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone areas could still see increased fire activity under strong climate change, according to the study. Thomas Hickler, a co-author, is affiliated with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany.
Effective Fire Management Can Help Limit Wildfire Extent
This research coincides with the intense wildfire season experienced in Europe in 2026, characterized by drought and extreme heat which fueled large fires. Southern Europe experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, but fires also spread to northern regions. The projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. The authors note that these patterns are driven by changes in fire weather conditions as rising temperatures and prolonged dry periods become more common.
The study clarifies that the 192% increase should not be considered an unavoidable outcome. It represents a modeled scenario under the high-emissions pathway based on specific assumptions. The findings suggest a much smaller increase under lower emissions and substantial reductions with improved fire management practices. However, the researchers emphasize that management alone cannot fully offset the rise in fire activity associated with stronger warming. Emissions levels, fire weather, and management capacity are identified as key factors shaping the future burned area in Europe.