ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal output in 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from last year’s record-setting harvest. Despite the decline, this total is expected to be the second-largest on record. The latest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the July forecast, with the annual drop totaling 61.1 million tonnes, marking the most significant year-on-year reduction since 2018.
Forecasted maize production for 2026 now stands at 1.309 billion tonnes after crop prospects weakened, leading to a downward revision from previous estimates. Extended summer heat and drought conditions have adversely impacted yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also prompted smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil reported better-than-expected yields, which partly offset these decreases, with both countries anticipated to produce well above average maize quantities in 2026.
The world wheat production forecast has increased to 810.7 million tonnes, up by 4.2 million tonnes from earlier estimates. The upward revision primarily reflects improved yield expectations for Canada and Morocco, each raised by approximately 1.5 million tonnes. Additionally, projections for Russia and Ukraine have been revised upward, whereas forecasts for the European Union and the United Kingdom declined due to dry weather conditions. Despite these adjustments, global wheat output is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and will remain the second-largest crop on record.
Maize setbacks contribute to downward adjustment of global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is expected to reach 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, representing a 1.9% decrease from the revised record in 2025/26. The latest forecast is supported by Myanmar’s improved figures and strong main-crop yields in Sri Lanka. These positive factors offset reductions in rice production estimates for China, the Philippines, and the United States, where plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates worldwide cereal utilization at 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a 0.2% increase from the prior season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, while wheat use is projected to decrease from the high levels of the previous season. Global rice consumption is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and rising food demand. Feed demand remains significant, with barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States forming key components of coarse-grain utilization.
Stock levels remain comfortably high despite slight reductions
At the close of the 2027 season, world cereal stocks are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but 1.8 million tonnes higher than opening stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio for cereals worldwide is expected to be 31.6%, down from 31.9% last season. While wheat reserves are projected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, smaller maize and barley inventories have led to a modest decline in overall stock expectations.
Global cereal trade in 2026/27 is predicted at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite the rise, the total remains below the record levels set in 2025/26. The increase is largely driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade is projected at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, with overall rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 record.