GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has revised its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade growth upward to 3.9 percent, representing a significant increase from the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. This positive outlook is driven by stronger trade performance in the first half of the year, supply chain modifications, and increased investments in artificial intelligence, according to the WTO. Despite notable disruptions affecting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent during the initial half of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade growth of 4.1 percent in 2027.
A key driver behind the increased trade outlook was the surge in demand linked to artificial intelligence during the first six months. Goods enabling AI, such as semiconductors and servers, accounted for 47 percent of overall global merchandise trade growth. Trade in these products soared by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO further indicated that global spending on AI infrastructure is expected to increase by at least 30 percent in 2026. The robust demand for computing hardware contributed to sustaining trade momentum, even as other sectors encountered disruptions from conflicts and transport bottlenecks.
Supply chains worldwide also adapted to the pressures across vital commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased by approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas shipments from the region fell by 47 percent during the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers tempered the decline, limiting the overall decrease in crude oil exports to about 6 percent. Global LNG exports saw only a 1 percent drop. Additionally, worldwide container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, as trade routes shifted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-enabled goods bolster global merchandise trade
This more optimistic forecast for merchandise trade contrasts with the more subdued outlook for commercial services. The WTO has lowered its 2026 projection for services trade volume growth to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel, leading to a 0.8 percent decline in international tourist arrivals during the second quarter. Overall, travel numbers for the first half of the year increased by only 0.4 percent. Growth in travel-related spending also slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
In contrast, other service sectors experienced stronger growth despite ongoing challenges in travel and transportation. Exports of computer services rose 18 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services increased by 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027. It also forecasts global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and an increase to 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade expansion across regions remains inconsistent
Regional forecasts for merchandise trade reveal significant differences worldwide. According to the WTO, Asia is expected to lead in export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North American exports are projected to grow by 5.7 percent, with Africa following at 5.6 percent. South America is forecast to see a 3.4 percent increase, whereas Europe is expected to decline slightly by 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest contraction, with merchandise exports forecast to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies considerably across regions. Asia is anticipated to record 9.5 percent in merchandise import expansion, and Africa is projected at 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to increase by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports into the Middle East are forecast to drop by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that these latest figures demonstrate trade resilience while also exposing differing levels of vulnerability to economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.